What is a Location Based Futures Study?
A small location-based futures study investigates the current state of a location and relates its current state to a global business intelligence and futures analysis. It’s the foundation for any resilient location-based strategy.
Such a study creates a future timeline where possible future disruption points are identified. And most importantly, their corresponding decision and action points are investigated and mapped.
The result is a futures map where the site’s various stakeholders can easily see when they have to make decisions and act. At least to turn a future disruption into an opportunity and not wait for it to become a threat.
How is it done?
A small location-based futures study is built on four tool modules.
1a – Street Research
We conduct a structured survey of the current state and ongoing development direction that applies today to the location and its area of influence. The survey provides data for the Chaos Modeling tool module.
The survey is mainly done as a Street Research project. We make observations on the spot, space syntax analysis, information searches, interact with the locals and do in-depth interviews with some individuals who have extensive insight into the current state and ongoing development direction for the site and its area of influence.
Current situation and the development direction surveyed include:
– Physical location
– Location Brand
– Social structure
– Research Clusters
– Innovation Clusters
– Business Clusters
– Other things of interest
1b – Clearing Fog Research
We conduct a structured survey of current and potential disruption trends which, today and in the future, affect the location and its area of influence. The survey provides data for the Chaos Modeling tool module.
The survey is mainly done as a Clearing Fog projects where we do extensive searches for information and in-depth interviews with some individuals who have deeper insights into the current and potential disruption trends.
Disruption trends surveyed includes:
– Global mega trends that affect all society
– Urban development, global and local trends
– Technology, global and local trends
– Lifestyle, global and local trends
– Other things of interest
2 – Chaos Modeling
We analyze and assemble the results of the tool modules Street Research and Clearing Fog Research into an open chaos model. In such a model causality and temporal relationships between disruption trends can be examined and put in relation to the current situation and development direction of the location and its area of influence. The purpose of the modeling is finding disruption points and corresponding action points.
An action point is the time when you have to act to take advantage of an opportunity or averting a threat. A disruption point or change point is the time a trend hits with full force, and wreaks havoc with those who do not timely adjusted. An action point usually occurs long before a disruption point, which is why “wait and see” strategies are not working.
The usual focus of our analysis is to identify and position on a timeline:
– Profitable development and investment opportunities primarily within urban development and location brand.
– Strategically critical threats and problems arising from global mega trends, technology trends and lifestyle trends. And to outline possible strategies to handle them.
– Simple measures that can strengthen the location, its brand, social structures and clusters.
Time Positioning of actions and disruption points are done within time spans:
– Within 2 years
– Within 4-5 years
– Within 10-12 years
– Within 20-30 years
3 – Report and Map Creation
The study will be delivered as a report and a timeline map.